Currency Review With Keith Spitalnick
Thought 2010 was tough?
Well if you thought 2010 was a tough year, 2011 will probably bring much the same for the currency markets, with volatility certain to be an ongoing theme.
Looking back at 2010, until the Eurozone debt crisis reignited at the start of October, Sterling had been rapidly losing ground to a dominant Euro. In September, when the Bank of England began to make noises about firing up the printing presses again with more quantitative easing, Sterling dropped back from just below €1.24 to levels as low as €1.12.
But a late showing of stronger data for the UK economy, (which quashed the threat of more quantitative easing for now), the Ireland bailout and the fear of Eurozone ‘contagion’ saw the pound recover to its current level, after briefly popping its head above the €1.19 parapet.
UK inflation remains high
To predict the direction of Sterling is a tricky call to make. Despite the UK economy struggling and unemployment levels starting to rise, inflation in the UK remains above the Bank of England target of 1-3% and is likely to increase even further in 2011. Whether inflation rises or falls is crucial for sterling, because if it remains around the 3% mark in the medium term, pressure will mount on the Bank to raise rates.
Call for interest rate hike
We have already seen one member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, Andrew Sentence, calling for an interest rate hike and the growing belief that when rates do rise in the UK they will go up very quickly which will have a positive effect on Sterling, possibly pushing it as high as 1.25-1.30 against the Euro. However any rate increase will probably not come until late 2011, so until then, the value of the pound will remain fairly range bound against currencies like the Euro.
Challenges for the Euro
The challenges facing the Euro in 2011 will be much the same as in 2010 – the need to service the debt of the southern European states. Italy, Spain and Portugal have to finance in excess of €800 billion of new and existing debt and should they find the market has no further appetite then the Euro could really start to fall apart.
China could come to the rescue of the Euro, as they certainly do not need their biggest trading partner imploding, and the Chinese are also keen to move away from having a huge dependency on the value of the US dollar.
So I am very intrigued as to the direction of the Euro over the next 12 months. The US dollar could be the surprise package in 2011 as growth rates for the US economy are upgraded, but once again this will probably not occur until late 2011.
Looking for certainty?
So if you’re looking for certainty, the only thing we can really be sure of is that volatility will once again be the key driver in 2011.


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