It’s All About The Yield!
As the Euro zone struggles with its mountain of debt, the old trick of devaluing your domestic currency is no longer a resource the seventeen members can rely on as they all sit under the umbrella of one currency and one interest rate.
In the UK however, the Bank of England has been able to slash interest rates to levels not seen in over 400 years. At the same time they have talked the value of the pound down to levels not seen in 25 years when measured against a basket of global currencies so logic would assume that the UKexport industry must be booming….but this is not the case.
In the first instance you need to be an export driven nation, and the UK has long since seen both the financial and service sectors make up a much larger proportion of GDP than the export sector. Secondly the UK’s trade balance has actually widened – one of the reasons being that manufacturers still need to import basic materials to manufacture the goods they export. And lastly, UK companies that do export have used the weakness of the pound to increase their profit margins rather than make their goods more competitive in a global market.
So for the UK a weaker pound hasn’t really helped the economy recover. I could also argue that it is now in the best interest for the Bank of England to let the pound rally to monetise the high rate of inflation the UK currently suffers from.
The US has also seen its currency tumble, but this is more down to the actions of the Federal Reserve who have embarked on a series of Quantitative Easing programs, pumping billions of dollars into the global economy, forcing the dollar lower and commodity prices to records highs. Unlike the UK, inflation in the US remains low as the economy has a huge amount of spare capacity, with unemployment sticky around 9% and the housing market still extremely weak.
The worry for the markets is that US inflation may suddenly spike and the Fed may have to raise rates a lot faster than anticipated choking off any USeconomic revival and also putting pressure on the United State’s huge debt obligations as yields rise in the US treasury market.
The Aussie dollar is the currency that keeps on giving and it is difficult to see this changing. Australia has become China’s supplier for commodities and as China continues to expand, the Australian economy will flourish. Not to mention countless hedge funds and Central Banks keen to diversify out of the US Dollar are moving billions into the Australian dollar. And finally the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to raise rates once again giving a yield of 5% … compare that to the UK, Eurozone or the US and you can see why the Aussie dollar is currently the darling of the currency markets.
Keith Spitalnick LLB (Hons)
Regional Sales Manager
Currencies Direct
Plaza de las Orquídeas, Local 5, Nueva Andalucía, 29660, Marbella, Málaga, Spain
T: +34 902 310 444 M: +34 687 417 035
F: +34 902 310 440 E: keith.s@currenciesdirect.com

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